Just one week from now the world’s best surfers will take to the water for the opening stop on the 2014 Samsung Galaxy ASP World Championship Tour at the Quiksilver and Roxy Pro Gold Coast presented by BOQ. Coastal Watch, official surf forecasters for the first Australian event of the season, have provided an early swell prediction for the opening days of the Quiksilver and Roxy Pro waiting periods.
Summary
A tropical low developing near Fiji mid to late next week coupled with a new high pressure system building into the Tasman Sea during the first weekend of March holds potential for a rising trend in ESE swell early in the waiting period.
Saturday, March 1:
SE tradewind swell 1 – 2ft at Snapper Rocks, rising during the day.
WIND: Early light SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots.
Sunday, March 2:
ESE tradewind swell 2 – 3ft at Snapper Rocks.
WIND: Early light SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots.
Monday, March 3:
ESE tradewind swell and potential E groundswell 3 – 4ft at Snapper Rocks.
WIND: Early light SSW tending SSE 15 to 20 knots.
Tuesday, March 4:
ESE swell and potential E groundswell speculatively 3 – 4ft+ at Snapper Rocks.
WIND: Early light SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots.
Wednesday, March 5:
ESE swell and potential E groundswell speculatively 3 – 4ft+ at Snapper Rocks.
WIND: Early light SSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots.
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Forecast Overview:
There are favourable developments looming on the long range horizon that broadly hold good potential for building trend in ESE swell through the first week of the waiting period. Although the bulk of latest long range model runs generally have a relatively weak tradewinds prevailing across the southwest Pacific from Monday 24 through to Friday 28 of February, there are good indications a tropical low will gradually develop in the vicinity of Fiji over this time frame – and this holds some potential for a rise in E groundswell during the first week of the waiting period.
For the time being there’s still obvious divergence among the key atmospheric models lending uncertainty to the potential impact of the tropical system. At one end of the scale there are optimistic US computer models indicating the system will swiftly intensify to tropical cyclone-strength thresholds west of Fiji during Tuesday/ Wednesday before stalling over the region directly north of New Zealand from Wednesday to Friday. This holds speculative potential for a strong E groundswell arriving right on time for the opening days of Saturday 1 and Sunday 2nd March.
However, alternative model guidance broadly downplays this possibility. Latest GFS model runs suggest the system will develop more gradually and remain much closer to Fiji – a scenario that suggests the system may have a more indirect influence; contributing to stronger ESE tradewinds across the southwest Pacific and thereby contributing to lower scale ESE swell in the three foot range through the first week of the waiting period.
At the other end of the scale latest EC runs pick up a relatively weak tropical system developing over the region around Thursday/ Friday before tracking south-east of Fiji, deeper into the southwest Pacific during the first weekend of March. Although this scenario would have a negligible impact on our swell window, it’s worth noting consecutive long range model runs are still very choppy; placing the low at various locations between New Caledonia and Fiji at varying points along the time line and this is a clear indicator the computer models are still struggling to accurately capture the storm’s development.
However this pans out, there are good indications a new high pressure system building over the Tasman Sea on Saturday March 1 and Sunday, March 2nd will reinforce the ridge spanning the northern Tasman Sea, setting up a building trend in shorter range ESE tradewind swell across the region. This generally holds good chances for a consistent run of two to three foot ESE swell over the course of the week beginning Monday 3rd March, with scope for larger surf contingent of the tropical low. The fringes of long range computer model guidance generally weaken the Tasman high and associated tradewind flow from Wednesday 5th March onwards – and this speculatively sees ESE swell gradually easing from Thursday 6th through to the weekend of Saturday 8th March. This will be reviewed again on Monday.
